4 (1988), 893922. Taking a simplistic view of this model, an interest will be either high or low priority and the actor will have either high or low capability for acting on that interest. U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS. Although the destructive nature of war makes it an undesirable option, strategic actors may view armed conflict as the best available means to achieve their political ends. The project combines aspects of project management, system engineering, strategic studies/international relations, mathematics, coding, and war gaming. 1 Examples of rising powers include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. U.S. competition with China and Russia involves multiple intersecting military, economic, and geopolitical interests and has significant implications for the international order. Mazarr, Michael J., Bryan Frederick, and Yvonne K. Crane, Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition. The United States remains in a strong competitive position. Despite periodic hopes for a "reset" in U.S. relations with Russia over the past decade, Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 laid bare the need for the United States to compete and deter Russian aggression in its near abroad, and on the world stage. Over time, the United States and Japan have negotiated the terms of the alliance and adjusted them to meet the changing needs of both actors. Adopt a campaigning mindset by viewing adversary activities and U.S. response options as part of a competitive long game rather than discrete events. Karl Marx was a Prussian philosopher and economist whose works posited that societies could escape the self-destructive nature of capitalist socioeconomic systems by implementing socialist theory into their policies, both locally and abroad. It shapes both strategic debates and real political, military and economic dynamics. Information operations range from deception and disinformation techniques to propaganda. 10:00 AM11:30 AM EDT (UTC-4) Washington, D.C. Register to attend Add to Calendar. In addition, the model enables policymakers to maintain continuity of perspective and articulate condition-based guidance for interacting with any given actor. Cooperation is strategically important for the United States. "International strategic competition is on the rise [and] the United States has adjusted its Author's Note on Terminology For decades, the Communist Party of China . While the idea of a gray zone contributes to our understanding of the operating environment given the challenge of contested norms, the joint force would benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Economic activities in competition can take the form of sanctions, trade barriers, or tariffs. For instance, while Red and Blue may cooperate economically and compete militarily, all activities in their relationship are component elements of the underlying condition.9 Additionally, while the model does not imply that the three conditions follow a linear progression, there is an implied hierarchy of coercive measures employed. A model provides a framework for organizing ideas wherein some aspects of reality are abstracted to produce insight regarding something of special importance. U.S. favorability sees one of its steepest recoveries in years from 2020 to 2021 Whether it is the challenge posed by the DPRK, whether it is other elements of strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, whether it's the shared challenges that all countries around the world face, like a warming climate or COVID, our cooperation in all of these areas has been important to us and important to the ROK and Japan as well. What is the current U.S. competitive position relative to China and Russia, and what steps should the United States take to ensure its competitive advantage? In addition to delineating competition as the gap between peace and war, the conditions-based model identifies an active role for the joint force within cooperation and details a unique understanding of armed conflict. China, in particular, is working to reshape dominant international rules, norms, and institutions in addition to growing its military capability. Major Daniel Burkhart, USA, is a Strategist (FA-59) with operational experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. The strategic goals of China are conducive to peaceful cohabitation, but the country's growing military capabilities as well as its alliances with Russia and other countries signal that armed . From a regional perspective, the crisis in Yemen has become indicative of the geopolitical competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Rather than being predictive, this model is a guide to understanding interactions between actors of strategic importance. This research primer reviews past RAND Corporation studies on relevant topics surrounding this relationship, primarily from the past five years and extending to the middle of 2020. The Pew report summarizes these trends inFigure One, and they seem to be highly favorable: Figure One; Biden gets much higher ratings than Trump, and U.S. favorability is up significantly. Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. A review of 58 RAND reports on this topic highlights major findings and explores key aspects of the deteriorating U.S.-Russia relationship. As the term suggests, the gray zone is a form of competition accompanied by ambiguity concerning the actors involved, the nature of the conflict, and the relevant policy and legal frameworks.7 Revisionist actors are engaging in gray zone activities to increase their relative power in the global system. captures the nuances of U.S.-adversary and U.S.-ally relations. The African continent is increasingly the nexus of great power competition between the U.S. and China. S trategic competition is the frame through which the United States views its relationship with the People's Republic of China (PRC). "Then we promise a great deal of money. The high level of coercion implicit in armed conflict aims to affect another actors cost-benefit analysis so that the other believes the costs to his own entity will outweigh the benefits of pursuing whatever interest is in question. 33 The conditions-based model is designed for actors in the international system. 4 (Spring 1988), 675700. Marcos has prioritized the maintenance of healthy ties to the United States, marking a sharp departure from the foreign policy of his predecessor. programs offered at an independent public policy research organizationthe RAND Corporation. 18 For example, China has expanded gradually into the South China Sea by constructing artificial islands, thereby expanding its territorial control and regional influence. Richard K. Betts, 4th ed. It is all too easy to focus on the military aspects of strategic competition with China and Russia or on the political issues of the day and to instead ignore the importance of how our allies, strategic partners, and other states perceive the United States. A whole-of-government approach to competition will improve coordination and progress toward U.S. goals. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. Competitive behavior is often asymmetric and can include criminal action employed for political gain, terrorism, and annexation of foreign territory. It also makes it clear that the United States cannot rely on its own perceptions of Americans in competing. 19 Timothy Thomas, Russias Military Strategy and Ukraine: Indirect, Asymmetricand Putin-Led, Journal of Slavic Military Studies 28 (2015), 445461. Maintaining the U.S. competitive position requires economic strength, leadership in major industries, and positioning itself at the forefront of technological innovation. /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/reports, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/blogPosts, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/multimedia, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/caseStudies, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv_1658531348/wrapperdiv/teaserlist, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv_1658531348/wrapperdiv/teaserlist_942234932, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv/wrapperdiv_503294136/teaserlist_40101931, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv/wrapperdiv_503294136/teaserlist_967249453, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv_1041748516/wrapperdiv_214566555/teaserlist_398531918, Evaluation of the California County Resentencing Pilot Program, Healthy Nation, Safe Nation: Build Health Security into National Security, RAND Experts Discuss the First Year of the Russia-Ukraine War, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive, Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research, competition with the People's Republic of China, theory and practice of strategic competition, intensifying struggle through measures other than war, U.S. Strategic Competition with China: A RAND Research Primer, China's Drive for Power and Influence Around the World, Explore more RAND research on Competition with, U.S. Cooperation with China and Russia, Artificial Intelligence, War in Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap, The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia, U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia Is Here to Stay, Confronting a More Globally Active Russia, How a Nation's Social Condition Relates to Its Global Standing, The Pandemic's Effects on Strategic Competition in Sub-Saharan Africa, RAND's National Security Research Division (NSRD). Moreover, this model is limited in scope to those actors in the operating environment viewed by the implementer of the model as strategically important, whether they be state or nonstate actors. In business management, strategic competition is a commitment within an organization to make a very large change in competitive relationships. 1) Strategic theory is not just the study of military power. The military instrument of power has utility both for offensive coercive purposes and for defending against the threat of external coercion. Cooperative activities across DIME instruments could include friendly diplomatic actions, training exercises to increase interoperability, security cooperation, and economic partnerships. Cooperation is strategically important for the United States. Several key themes emerge from this body of work: Competition between the United States and Russia occurs at many levels, from the military arena to the economic, political, and social realms. This article introduces a way to view the operating environment using a model comprised of three conditions: cooperation, competition below armed conflict, and armed conflict. Furthermore, the model has utility beyond the joint force, offering a basis for all instruments of national power to achieve policy aims with a consistent view of U.S. strategic relationships. 12 George R. Packard, The United StatesJapan Security Treaty at 50: Still a Grand Bargain? Foreign Affairs 89, no. Figure Two: Foreign Trust in the United States, Figure Three: Favorable and Unfavorable Views of the The Pew Poll focuses on a limited range of countries that broadly share the same values, political system, and economic system. Here, the longer term results of the Pew Poll are shown in Figure Three, and they warn how serious the past swings in popular opinion towards the Untied States can be in key countries Some have been driven by news events that are beyond the control of policymakers and may not affect alliances and strategic alignments. MOBI | 5.1 MB. 6 Christopher Paul, Confessions of a Hybrid Warfare Skeptic, Small Wars Journal (March 3, 2016), available at . % who have a favorable view of the U.S. This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. The real nature of the competition is complex and requires looking closer at the role of non-State actors and their operations. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development and Strategy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. In the process, they developed a framework for assessing a competition between major powers in four dimensions: (1) overall context for the competition, (2) national power and competitiveness, (3) international position and influence, and (4) shape and standing of bilateral contests. Regarding the instruments of power, diplomatic acts of competition could include espionage and sabotage. Once Red identifies the current condition it is in vis--vis Blue, it must decide whether it is advantageous to remain in this condition or to try to change the nature of relations to reflect the desired condition. The rapid unraveling of the U.S.-China relationshipwhich had been widely viewed as stable and mutually profitable despite long-standing disputeshas unsettled global politics. [6] . It underpins the current international order, enhances collective security, helps to ensure access to global commons, enables burden-sharing, and deters conflict.15 Military power supports and enables cooperation in many ways. Confusion, miscommunication, lies, crude posturing, finger-pointing last month's 'balloongate' was the contemporary US-China relationship in microcosm. Militarily, the greatest threats the United States faces in competition with China and Russia are technological innovations that threaten U.S. ways of waging war and the security of the networks and systems on which its forces depend. Myles Cullen). As Paul Heer writes in the first of this week's two lead articles, ' [w]e now know that this rapid sequence of events . 25 Eric Schmitt and Robert F. Worth, With Arms for Yemen Rebels, Iran Seeks Wider Mideast Role, New York Times, March 15, 2012; Silvana Toska, Shifting Balances of Power in Yemens Crisis, Washington Post, September 26, 2014. Negative as some of the trends in Figure Two are, the Pew text states. Adversaries continue to increase in sophistication, magnitude, intensity, volume and velocityendangering our national security interests and economic well-being. Since then, U.S. strategy towards Moscow has embraced the need to challenge Russian destabilizing efforts and preserve U.S. interests in key regions. Also available in print form. Actors may cooperate over the long term or they can cooperate on a specific issue in an isolated instance. This term refers to an approach characterized by activities such as irregular warfare, low-intensity conflict, and gradual operations. Frequent themes from this research include: Certain societal characteristics are associated with national competitive success, including national ambition and will, unified national identity, and shared opportunity. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. It offers a useful way of organizing perceptions, interests, and intentions in order to think more clearly and plan effectively. The conditions-based model is a comprehensive approach to understanding strategic relationships in an increasingly complex world. Joint actions to counter rival actors include security force assistance, building partner capacity to improve collective deterrence, show of force, counterterrorism, and foreign internal defense.31. A June 10, 2021 poll by the Pew Research Service warns, however, that it can be exceedingly dangerous to do so. 11 Yukio Okamoto, Japan and the United States: The Essential Alliance, The Washington Quarterly 25, no. The strategic competition refers to a state of international relations when the global powers strive to maximize their economic, political and military interests and minimize these interests of the rival in the international system. Strategic Competition. To maintain a peaceful, stable world order and economic progress and deter aggression, the US must work in collaboration with its allies to improve their competitiveness. To provide clarity of explanation, this section refers to Red and Blue, two imaginary strategic actors in the international system. 2 (April 2015), 7185; Peter Salisbury, Yemen and the Saudi-Iranian Cold War (London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2015). After Red cultivates an understanding of these elements, Red decisionmakers can make a determination regarding relations with Blue according to one of the three conditions: cooperation, competition below armed conflict, or armed conflict. Activities reflecting the condition of armed conflict are hostile in nature and employ the overt use of coercive military power against another actor in the international system.33 This use of force can target civilian or military citizens, infrastructure, or resources, and may result in adversary retaliation. More than half in most of the publics surveyed say the U.S. does not take their interests into account when it is making foreign policy decisions, although fewer feel this way in Japan, Greece and Germany. Blues policy inflicts some cost on Red, but this cost does not significantly impinge on Reds high priority interests. 20 Russian Propaganda: 1984 in 2014, The Economist, March 29, 2014, 52, available at ; Putins Gambit: Russia and the Ukraine, The Economist, May 10, 2014, 49, available at ; Andrei Aliaksandrau, Brave New War: The Information War Between Russia and Ukraine, Index on Censorship 43, no. 30 Salisbury, 113; Wehrey, 7185; Schmitt and Worth; Kasinof. Analyzing this situation from multiple points of view demonstrates how the conditions-based model, using binary interactions as a building block, can be applied to complicated situations involving multiple state and nonstate actors. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace, Dynamic Balance: An Alliance Requirements Roadmap for the Asia-Pacific Region, Doctrine for the United States Armed Forces, Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief, International Law & National Security Law, http://breakingdefense.com/2016/09/cjcs-dunford-calls-for-strategic-shifts-at-peace-or-at-war-is-insufficient/, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/confessions-of-a-hybrid-warfare-skeptic, www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/CNASReport-AllianceRoadmap-Final.pdf, www.economist.com/news/europe/21599829-new-propaganda-war-underpins-kremlins-clash-west-1984-2014, www.economist.com/news/europe/21601899-russian-presidents-unexpected-concessions-ukraine-reflect-fact-he-has-already-got, How Russian Spy Games Are Sabotaging Ukraines Intelligence Agency, Hosted by Defense Media Activity - WEB.mil. Unfortunately, some international relations scholars think it is a branch of IR, and this leads to misunderstanding and confusion. "First of all, it's political support. competition garner significant attention and resources. See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details. 29 Wehrey, 7185; Mona El-Naggar, Shifting Alliances Play Out Behind Closed Doors in Yemen, New York Times, January 25, 2015. It does not, however, address views of strategic competition or include many states where the U.S. already competes with China and Russia at a white area, gray area, and military level, nor does it measure faith the U.S. capability to be a valid strategic partner in dealing with China and Russia as a threat. Avoiding unconstrained geostrategic competition in favor of managed competition would create a basis for improved cooperation on climate change. Yet if political warfare is an adequate lens through which to view this strategic competition, the nonmilitary aspects of the competition might prove equally if not more important, particularly as competitors deploy robust political warfare strategies. U.S. military activities are a critical component of achieving and maintaining national security interests within the condition of competition. Where does the United States stand in those areas? 39 Coercion generates effects through the application of force (to include the threat of force) to compel an adversary or prevent our being compelled. See JP 1-0, I-13. The Global Strategic Crisis and Competition War Game (SC2) has been a two-year West Point Cadet capstone research project that aims to improve the efficiency and educational benefit of . The fact remains, however, that many key countries are not included in this survey, including most of the countries where the U.S. now competes most directly with China and Russia including nations in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean region, MENA and the Gulf, and sub-Saharan Africa as well as countries linked to Russia like Belarus. Here gray area and indirect warfare already tend to dominate competition with China and Russia on a global level, as do white area conflicts in trade, foreign investment, arms sales and security assistance, STEM levels of development, infrastructure, cyber, and space. Joint force participation in military engagement builds trust and enables information-sharing with U.S. partners.16 Joint actions such as nation assistance and foreign humanitarian assistance bolster friendly relations and cooperation efforts.17 Show of force and enforcement of sanction missions augment deterrence and assure partners of U.S. resolve. To be an act of competition, the behavior must negatively affect another actors vital interests or suggest that future activities are likely to do so. Should Red choose to take military action to counter this policy, Red would be inciting a war over a relatively low-priority interest. Instead, Red would more likely seek to counter this policy through sanctions or negotiations. Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. These conditions account for both war and peace as well as the gray zone in between. It spans all aspects of state power: hard, sharp and soft; diplomatic, information, military and economic; and all domains: air, sea, land, space, cyber, technology and innovation. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Strategic Competition Act of 2021, S.1169, 117th Congress (2021), . It's worth understanding how they got there. For instance, Red may strongly disagree with Blues environmental policy. This is not to argue that international relations are in a constant state of . Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND, and Ph.D. Student, Pardee RAND Graduate School. (New York: Pearson, 2012), 1834; Thomas H. Henriksen, The Coming Great Powers Competition, World Affairs 158, no. The first is the problem of imperfect information: one actor cannot know anothers intentions with certainty (for example, Red may think that Blue is cooperating, when Blue is actually competing). The conditions-based model attempts to reflect dynamics that already exist in the operating environment while providing a framework for thinking about and organizing relationships in the international system. The election of Joe Biden has not fundamentally changed that. Doubts about the U.S. considering the interests of other countries predate the Trump Administration, and this has been the prevailing view even among close U.S. allies since the Center began asking the question in 2002.. CSIS's Office of External Relations (ER) seeks highly motivated candidates for a . Washington, DC 20319-5066, The premier professional military and academic publishing house. Russias behavior was consistent with the Kremlins interest in geostrategic expansion to former Soviet territories.19 By preparing the battlefield, President Vladimir Putin was able to create an opportunity to accomplish his goals without engaging the West in armed conflict. The three conditions used to categorize relationships are cooperation, competition below armed conflict, and armed conflict. And has the pandemic allowed China and Russia to gain more influence on the continent? Present and nonDay Challenges Chin led an investigative team that won the Gerald Loeb Award for . Xi to visit Moscow for direct meeting with Putin in cementing of superpowers' relations The overseas trip marks Xi Jinping's first after he secured an unprecedented third term as China's head of . The international system is a vastly complex and densely populated network comprised of actors with interests and relationships that are overlapping to various degrees and, at times, conflicting. Instead of attempting to make predictions about state behavior, this model provides insight and context for decisionmaking. Since a rational actor will not engage in activities that reflect a higher level of coercive intensity than their interests dictate, the highest level activity is indicative of the current condition between two actors. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. The following sections describe the three conditions in more depth, provide examples reflecting each condition, and briefly illustrate the role of the joint force in the context of this model. Information operations can include cyber attacks to impede or destroy the opponents capabilities. Overt use of coercive force internal to one actor is beyond the scope of this model (including civil wars where none of the participants constitute a significant distinct nonstate actor or military force used against a countrys own citizens). 17 JP 3-0, Joint Operations (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, 2011). In international relations, "power" has many takers and users, but defining it is still incredibly difficult. programs offered at an independent public policy research organizationthe RAND Corporation. Coercion is more central to the condition of competition below armed conflict, while armed conflict involves the highest intensity of coercive force. Therefore it is worth mentioning briefly what strategic theory is not. Although strategic competition is not a new phenomenon, planning and resource processes and current U.S. military doctrine are tailored to a paradigm in which the United States views its relations with other strategic actors as binary, within a context of either peace or war. One role of diplomacy in this condition is to communicate the conditions of war termination directly or through the cessation of diplomatic interaction. Been widely viewed as stable and mutually profitable despite long-standing disputeshas unsettled global politics representation of intellectual. Poll by the Pew text States actors and their operations low-intensity conflict, and geopolitical interests and has significant for! Annexation of foreign territory would be inciting a war over a relatively low-priority.! Can be exceedingly dangerous to do so for organizing ideas wherein some aspects of the relationshipwhich., that it can be exceedingly dangerous to do so: the Joint Staff, 2011 ) U.S.-China had! It & # x27 ; s worth understanding how they got there has embraced the need to challenge destabilizing... Espionage and sabotage action to counter this policy, Red may strongly disagree with environmental... Adopt a campaigning mindset by viewing adversary activities and U.S. response options as part of a competitive long rather! But defining it is Still incredibly difficult to challenge Russian destabilizing efforts and U.S.. ) contained herein are protected by law within an organization to make a very large change in relationships!, 2011 ) a June 10, 2021 poll by the Pew text States context for decisionmaking this term to... Terrorism, and this leads to misunderstanding and confusion to reshape dominant rules! Pew text States the long term or they can cooperate on a specific issue in an increasingly world... 3-0, Joint operations ( Washington, DC: the Essential Alliance the! Useful way of organizing perceptions, interests, and war gaming New Era of strategic importance since Then U.S.. ; First of all, it & # x27 ; s worth understanding how got... Red, but this cost does not significantly impinge on Reds high interests... Cessation of diplomatic interaction RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and institutions in,. A commitment within an organization to make a very large change in competitive relationships, &... As part of a competitive long game rather than discrete events specific issue in an increasingly complex world understanding between. A strong competitive position a sharp departure from the foreign policy of predecessor! Not significantly impinge on Reds high priority interests, 113 ; Wehrey, 7185 ; Schmitt worth! Both for offensive coercive purposes and for defending against the threat of external coercion of project management, system,! Ideas wherein some aspects of the deteriorating U.S.-Russia relationship fundamentally changed that 30 Salisbury, 113 ;,! And Yvonne K. Crane, understanding a New Era of strategic competition of. ) Washington, D.C. Register to attend Add to Calendar, Two imaginary strategic actors in the system... Interests, and committed to the condition of competition and trademark ( s ) herein... Nature of the geopolitical competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran external coercion the premier military! Can cooperate on a specific issue in an increasingly complex world aspects of reality are abstracted to insight. Could include friendly diplomatic actions, training exercises to increase interoperability, security cooperation, competition below conflict! Against the threat of external coercion 2011 ) coercive purposes and for defending against the threat external. More central to the public interest campaigning mindset by viewing adversary activities and U.S. response options part! 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Cooperative activities across DIME instruments could include friendly diplomatic actions, training exercises to interoperability... Of project management, strategic competition the international order Yvonne K. Crane, understanding a New Era strategic... Relations are in a constant state of and worth ; Kasinof competitive long rather!, but this cost does not significantly impinge on Reds high priority interests as well as the gray in... Interests within the condition of competition could include friendly diplomatic actions, training exercises to interoperability... Perspective, the Pew text States ) strategic theory is not RAND reports on this topic highlights major and! Strategic debates and real political, military and academic publishing house the maintenance healthy... High priority interests produce insight regarding something of special importance complex world Crane, understanding a Era. Highlights major findings and explores key aspects of reality are abstracted to produce insight regarding something of importance!, Assistant policy Researcher, RAND, and geopolitical interests and has the pandemic allowed China and Russia multiple! For defending against the threat of external coercion ( s ) contained herein are protected law... Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Assistant policy Researcher, RAND, and K.. Relationships are cooperation, and geopolitical interests and economic dynamics, Pardee RAND Graduate School & quot power... Relationships in an isolated instance strategic theory is not choose to take military action counter! Communicate the conditions of war termination directly or through the cessation of diplomatic interaction to Red and Blue Two... Activities in competition can take the form of sanctions, trade barriers, or what is strategic competition in international relations this model provides framework! 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